Why is Jayson Tatum nowhere in the MVP discussion?

The best player on the best or the 2nd-best team. How often does that player end up as the league MVP? Since the start of the 2000-01 season, 16 out of the 23 MVP's have come from either the team with the best or 2nd best record in the NBA. In the years that it wasn't one of them, the best players were either snubbed or closely in contention to win the award. Yet this season, that hasn't held true. It seems as if the MVP award has been locked up by Nikola Jokic since the turn of the year, and at no point in time has his grasp slipped. The others in contention are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, while Tatum seems to languish at 4th or 5th. He remains an afterthought. 

In this analysis, we delve into the factors contributing to Tatum's absence from the MVP discourse, exploring both statistical nuances and broader contextual elements that may shape perceptions of his candidacy. Join us as we unravel the enigma surrounding Jayson Tatum's place—or lack thereof—in the MVP discussion. 

(For the purpose of this blog, Tatum will be compared to the other MVP candidates listed above)

Reason 1: The Team is almost great even without Tatum

Here's a damning stat. The Boston Celtics' offensive rating goes up by just 1.4 points when Tatum is on the court vs off the court. The chart below gives up the percentile of their on-off change. For example, Shai's on-off impact is in the 99th percentile. Compare Tatum to the other MVP candidates.

The on-off court differentials hurt Tatum's case because they indicate how good the team is around him. His 63rd % ranking in the Offensive On-Off is used against him, as he isn't doing the heavy lifting. Instead, because every player is so good, the Celtics do not need him to play like an MVP candidate night in and night out. Every other MVP candidate ranks highly because they create so many points for their respective teams, leading to a much higher differential when they do not play. 

Here's another example.

When Tatum is on the court, they play like a 66-win team. When he's off the court, they play like a 62-win team. So Tatum has a win-differential of +4. When Jokic is on the court, their win-differential is +47 (they are 47 wins better with him on the court). Luka has a win-differential of +30, Shai has a win-differential of +27, and Giannis has a win-differential of +31. Tatum has nowhere near the same impact on winning as some of the other candidates.

Reason 2: He just isn't that good

Out of the last 20 MVP winners in the NBA:

14 ranked 1st in WS/48, 1 ranked 2nd, and nobody outside the top-10 has ever won the award. 

That's a 70% rate. It increases if you consider that Jokic was robbed of MVP last year and that Lebron was robbed when Derrick Rose won it, as both Jokic and Lebron led the league in WS/48. This season, Jayson Tatum ranks 12th!! when considering the minimum number of games to be 65. That alone destroys his MVP case.

Here's a statistic that shows how many great games each MVP candidate has compared to their worst games. For this, let's use a metric called Game Score.

This metric gives a score to each game a score based on a formula. It equates similar to points; for eg. 10 is a mediocre game, and 40 is a great game.

He has far more decent games when compared to great games, and while more than 50% of everybody else's game scores are 25 and over, his majority lies between 15 and 25.  

Tatum's statistics aren't eye-popping either. Here's a table that compares his rankings to the other candidates. 

So much of Jokic's game is being top-10 in every stat and then wiping the floor on the advanced metrics. Luka on the other hand is a box score machine and ranks fairly high among the advanced metrics. Shai and Giannis are similar in that most of their value lies in their scoring and defense. The only thing Tatum has going for him is the Celtics league-best record. 

He has scored under 20 points 8 times this season. Giannis has only done that 6 times, Shai only 4, Luka only 5, and Jokic 13 times. Conversely, he has scored over 40 points just 3 times. Jokic has only done that once, Luka has done it 12 times, Shai has done it 5 times, and Giannis has done it 8 times. 

He doesn't stuff the sheets, and the advanced metrics don't love him. He ranks 12th in Estimated Plus-Minus, 7th in Estimated Wins added, and 11th in LEBRON. Everybody ahead of him on the MVP ladder ranks higher than him in every single metric. 

Jayson Tatum is a phenomenal NBA player. He just isn't playing at an MVP level this year, partly because he hasn't had to. But that doesn't mean that the best player on the best team argument should work, and anybody pushing the narrative that Tatum is an MVP candidate; Stop it 

Jayson Tatum should not win the MVP this year, and, at best he should finish 5th on the ballot. 

All data from 03/30/2024.