Breaking Down the IPL Mega Auction's Largest Buys

The biggest event in a cricketer's career occurs every 3 years. For many, it's their ticket to stardom and international recognition, gaining legions of fans and supporters along the way while earning the most money the cricket world has to offer. The IPL Mega Auction feels less like a cricket event and more like a high-stakes reality show where team owners play The Price is Right with players' careers. It’s cricket’s version of Monopoly, except the properties are world-class athletes, the money is real, and everyone’s hoping not to go bankrupt over a bowler who ends up leaking runs. So, grab your popcorn (or biryani), because this year’s auction was packed with drama, surprises, and bidding wars intense enough to make a Bollywood villain nervous.

All data is from the 2024 IPL season

Batters

When it comes to cricket auctions, how do teams decide which batters are worth the big bucks? To crack this mystery, I turned to BASRA (Batting Average + Strike Rate), a quick-and-dirty way to gauge a batter's overall productivity. While not perfect, BASRA offers fans a snapshot of a player’s ability to do what cricket is all about: scoring more runs. And how do you score more runs?

1. Bat long and steady (high average).
2. Smash hard and fast (high strike rate).

However, looking at BASRA in a vacuum was unproductive, as you then had to compare each player's value to a league average value and understand how much a player is more productive than the league average. So, I normalized this metric, setting the league average to 100. The auction's results are below.

Looking at the data, it's surprising—and a bit baffling—that the highest-bidded batsmen only posted slightly above-average BASRA+ numbers. You'd think teams would break the bank for truly elite players, but nope! Plenty of more productive batsmen were left in the shadows.

But here’s the catch: this dataset is a little messy. It includes retained players, which skews the sample. Think about it—teams aren’t bidding on their best stars because they’re locking them down before anyone else gets the chance. So, what happens when we level the playing field and toss out the retained players? 

These picks still don’t paint a great picture. There were plenty of more productive players bought for nearly half the price of some of these guys, which raises some tough questions. But there’s a catch—this dataset includes bowlers and one-game wonders. Players like Romario Shepherd, for example, only played six games for MI last season yet managed a BASRA+ of 194 due to an absurd strike rate. So, what happens if we narrow the focus to players who faced over 160 balls (about 10 per game)? Let’s see if the picture gets any clearer.

Only 13 players in this auction faced 160+ balls last season and weren't retained. Yet, despite this trimming, the buys still feel underwhelming. The blue dots in the 110-120 BASRA+ range cost a cool 3-5 crore less than KL Rahul and Jos Buttler for almost identical production. Meanwhile, Phil Salt, the far-right dot, went for 11.5 crores, a bargain compared to KKR splurging nearly 24 crores on Venkatesh Iyer.

So that brings us to the question:

What were these buys predicated on?

Rishabh Pant: Despite a strong season last year, Pant is still far from an IPL elite. His numbers have never fully captured his potential, and at 28, he's entering his 9th IPL season. Even his best year (2018) doesn’t stand out as the game-changing force everyone expected him to be. Betting 27 crore on Pant is essentially a hope that he’ll finally hit his peak—but at that price, it’s a big gamble for a player who’s struggled with consistency.

Shreyas Iyer: Iyer's IPL numbers are solid but far from exceptional. His peak years were 2018-2020, but he wasn’t setting the world on fire with his average or strike rate even then. At 30, paying him 26.75 crore for averaging 35 runs per match while striking in the 130-140 range seems like a stretch. The money doesn’t match the output, and the future doesn’t look like a drastic turnaround.

Ventakesh Iyer: After a breakthrough season, Iyer was set for a pay raise—23.75 crore is a steep one. While his recent form looks promising (he had the 2nd-best BASRA+), his past seasons were underwhelming. KKR is betting on his upward trajectory, but it’s a risky bet. His value could skyrocket or fall flat, and at that price, it's a dicey buy.

KL Rahul: Now here’s a smart buy. Rahul’s recent form might not have been stellar, but his history speaks for itself—over 600 runs per season from 2018-2022. At 14 crore, he offers the stability DC needs as an opener. For what he brings to the table, this feels like the best pick-up out of these 5.

Jos Buttler: Buttler’s IPL legacy rests heavily on his spectacular 2022 season, but consistency has been a struggle. While he's a powerful hitter and a threat in the powerplay, his track record doesn’t quite match the hype. The Titans are banking on him being the spark at the top of the order, hoping he can set up a big foundation for the team’s other batters to take over. It’s a roll of the dice, but it could pay off.

Bowlers

In T20 cricket, economy is king. Wickets? Sure, they matter, but they’re not the most reliable indicator of consistent performance. A bowler can take three wickets in a game and still give away 40-45 runs—hardly the formula for stability. Wickets often come down to chance; a batter misfires or miscues a shot, and boom—out. But economy is skill-based: it’s all about stopping runs and outsmarting the batter, making sure they can’t fully connect with the ball.

Now, if we look at the top IPL buys, it’s mostly fast bowlers. Aside from Yuzvendra Chahal, who shines as a wicket-taker in the middle overs, the real big-money signings are the pacers—bowlers who come alive in the powerplay or death overs, crucial moments when they’re expected to shut down the opposition's run-scoring. That’s where I introduced a new stat: High-Pressure Economy+, which measures how well bowlers perform in the powerplay (0-6) and death overs (16-20). These are the moments that truly define a bowler’s value. Isolating these 2 periods, I calculated the High-Pressure Economy by:

(Total Runs Given (powerplay+death)/Total Balls Bowled)*6

To find High-Pressure Economy+:

(League Average High-Pressure Economy/Player High-Pressure Economy)*100

What do preliminary results state?

This graph paints a much kinder picture for the selections than the batting one. Trent Boult and Mohammad Siraj clearly earn their paydays with standout performances in high-leverage moments. However, the other two players still lag behind in these situations. But, like the batters' graph, this data is a bit rough around the edges.

What if we clean it up? Remove all the retained bowlers and set the minimum balls bowled at 60? 

Mohammad Siraj and Trent Boult’s high demand makes sense—when the pressure’s on, they step up. These two bowlers don’t just keep the runs in check; they shine in high-stress situations, making them premium players who will always command attention.

But then we have Mitchell Starc and Arshdeep Singh, both on opposite sides of the 100 High-Pressure Economy+ mark. In these moments, they don’t seem as dominant, with Starc even falling below average. So, what makes them valuable?

Let’s dive into one more test. If stopping runs isn’t enough, the next best thing is to take wickets while conceding those runs. So, let’s see how Arshdeep and Starc measure up in Strike Rate+ when we apply the same filters (Not retained, balls >= 60, high-pressure situations).

Mitchell Starc’s 4th-best Strike Rate+ among the 25 high-pressure bowlers at the IPL auction speaks for itself. With 17 wickets last year—more than anyone else in the tournament—his blistering pace and lethal swing make him a nightmare for batsmen. Starc has all the tools to be the best in these high-stakes situations.

Arshdeep Singh, on the other hand, is the versatile bowler who does a bit of everything—but doesn’t quite excel at any one thing. Only 9 bowlers last year had a High-Pressure Economy+ >100 and a Strike Rate+ >120. Of those, only 5 weren’t retained. Despite his all-around contributions, last year was his worst in terms of economy.

Conclusion

After examining the biggest buys (batters and bowlers) in the 2025 Mega Auction, I'm walking away with 2 key takeaways. 

1. Batsmen will always reign supreme in the IPL. Much like an NFL quarterback, all it takes is one team to believe in a player’s potential—and the big payday follows. Take Shreyas Iyer and Rishabh Pant—none are standout IPL performers, yet they still landed superstar contracts. Jos Buttler, while having his moments has not been extremely consistent in the IPL, yet he also landed a massive contract. Bowlers, however, have to prove themselves first, showing they have the goods before they can earn anywhere near the level of their batting counterparts.

And that leads to my 2nd point.

2. Cricket analytics is still lagging behind its Western counterparts. Unless I missed something or there’s some hidden magic in these players, the auction decisions often make no sense. I built all these stats myself, and even without advanced metrics, if I were tasked with spending 25+ crore on Rishabh Pant or Shreyas Iyer, I'd say no without hesitation. Championship teams thrive on smart, calculated decisions. Dropping nearly half your auction budget on potential (or promise) rather than proven value? I don't believe it's a winning strategy.

What are your thoughts on this auction? 

How do you feel your team did? 

Was there a player you really wanted and got/didn't get?