What College Stats do NBA Teams find most valuable?

In an era defined by the rise of player development leagues and a surge of international talent, college basketball remains the unrivaled breeding ground for future NBA stars. The statistics tell a compelling story: over the past decade, 594 players have answered the call to the NBA, with an impressive 478 of them—more than 80%—hailing from the collegiate ranks. This striking figure underscores the enduring significance of college basketball as the ultimate talent pipeline, thriving as a pivotal pathway to professional success. With each draft night, college basketball proves it’s not just holding its own; it’s the launchpad where the next big names in the NBA are forged.

So, let's dive into this evaluation. 

What should you do well in college to be picked higher?

Counting Stats

Counting stats are the lifeblood of basketball, serving as essential metrics for fans evaluating player performance. Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks provide a tantalizing glimpse into a player's contributions, capturing the thrill of a slam dunk or the precision of an assist. These statistics are meticulously tracked during games, recording every action—from three-pointers to critical rebounds.

However, there’s a catch: these numbers can be misleading when viewed in isolation. They often ignore context, efficiency, and a player’s role on the team. A player might score big, but those flashy stats can be more illusion than reality if they’re shooting poorly or dominating the ball.

Counting stats take center stage in the high-stakes NBA draft, heavily influencing a player’s perceived value. A player with impressive counting stats seems like a top pick among fans, but teams might value him differently.

Impact on Draft Stock

These numbers tell an intriguing story. Blocks and steals hurt draft position, which could be explained by the fact that these stats are often higher in defensive grinders and role players rather than the high-powered scorers who usually go early in the draft. No surprise, then, that points per game show a big boost to draft appeal. High-scoring college players are often picked for a reason: their ability to pour in points usually translates to the NBA. 

What’s really interesting, though, is that assists, rebounds, fouls, and turnovers don’t seem to move the needle much at all. The reason? (Maybe) You can teach those things at the next level. Playmaking, boxing out, reading the floor—these skills can be developed with the right coaching. But scoring? Scoring is art. You can’t just teach players how to be natural bucket-getters; teams know that.

Advanced Stats

Advanced stats delve deeper into basketball, revealing layers of a player's game that counting stats alone can’t capture. While counting stats showcase raw output, advanced stats like True Shooting Percentage (TS%), Player Efficiency Rating (PER), and Usage Rate (USG%) provide a more refined picture, assessing efficiency, impact, and role within the team’s system. These metrics quantify aspects like shooting accuracy across shot types, a player's scoring efficiency relative to their opportunities, and how contributions stack up against league averages.

Advanced stats also factor in a player’s influence beyond individual scores or rebounds. Metrics such as Offensive Rating (ORtg) and Defensive Rating (DRtg) evaluate a player’s effect on their team’s scoring or defensive success when they’re on the court. Unlike basic tallies, advanced stats account for nuances like opponent strength, player teammates' quality, and game pace, offering a fuller context to analyze a player’s potential value.

Impact on Draft Stock

When you dive into the numbers, a clear shift emerges between the weight of advanced stats versus counting stats in determining draft stock. Surprisingly, traditional rebounding stats don’t make the cut in draft analyses, yet Total Rebounding Percentage (TRB%)—the percentage of available rebounds a player secures on the court—stands out as a major influence. Points Per Shot (PPS) is another expected key player, capturing scoring efficiency in a way simple point totals can’t.

Player Efficiency Rating (PER) often works against college players aiming for high draft positions. Why? PER tends to favor upperclassmen who’ve had more time to develop consistency, while highly-touted freshmen—who flash elite potential but often lack polished stats—typically have lower PERs. In 2023, none of the top 10 PER leaders were first-round picks; only one, Trayce-Jackson Davis, was even drafted, and he went 57th. By contrast, top pick Brandon Miller didn’t come close to leading in PER. The same holds for Reed Shephard, this year’s highest-drafted college player. PER often crowns seasoned college players, but it’s the raw, high-ceiling prospects that catch NBA scouts’ eyes. 

Conclusion

The biggest takeaway from this analysis? Context is everything in the NBA draft. Beyond the Top-10, drafting becomes less about raw numbers and more about team needs and fit. Rebuilding teams with high picks might chase elite scorers, but after that, it’s a different ballgame. Counting stats can mislead—blocks and steals, for example, tend to hurt the draft stock, while their advanced counterparts, Steal% and Block% (the share of possessions where a player generates a steal or block), barely register an impact. 

Total Rebounding% is a massive swing factor in terms of advanced stats, yet its counting compatriots (offensive and defensive rebounding numbers) have little to no impact. All this highlights a central truth of drafting: it’s about finding the right combination of skills and impact for a team’s unique strategy. In the end, it’s the synergy of both counting and advanced stats—and the context in which they’re applied—that NBA teams use to make their most calculated moves on draft night.