How Valuable is Rebounding in the NBA?

The New York Knicks' recent trade with Minnesota to acquire Karl-Anthony Towns while trading away Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo sparked heated discussions on all platforms and even within our Knicks group chat. The untimely injury to their star center, Mitchell Robinson, reignited a debate fans had been thinking about. 

Just how valuable is rebounding in the NBA? Robinson, a dominant force on the boards, leaves a glaring void in the Knicks’ lineup, bringing rebounding into the spotlight in a way often overshadowed by more glamorous stats like points, blocks, and steals. Its lack of flashiness means its impact can easily be overlooked. 

This got me thinking—how crucial is rebounding, really? To answer that, I dove into the data to uncover the true value of controlling the boards in today’s NBA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=zouv3_rhMZo

Basic Rebounding Stats

To find the true impact, these are normalized numbers i.e. numbers adjusted to a different scale so they are easily comprehensible. Basic box score numbers paint an interesting story.

Rebound Type	Season Average	Wins (+/-)	Losses (+/-)
OREB	37.69	-0.7	+0.7
DREB	43.56	+5.53	-5.53

On Average, Teams that win games have 12.7% higher defensive rebounding numbers. This makes sense. More defensive rebounds (DREB) indicate that you are not allowing opponents to get the ball back and extend possessions. Teams are shutting the possession down and offenses cannot generate another look at the basket.

But the offensive rebounding (OREB) numbers tell a different story. While the difference isn't massive, teams that win games have fewer offensive rebounds than the losing team. I can think of 2 clear cut reasons for this:

1. Teams that win make more shots so they do not have as many chances to get an offensive rebound
    
2. NBA teams are opting for transition defense in favor of offensive rebounding. Offensive rebounding generally requires multiple offensive players to stay in the other team's paint and fight for the ball. If the defense secures the rebound, it can race down the court, leaving the original offense's defense vulnerable to mismatches and a lack of personnel situations. 

But, these are surface-level numbers. If a team shoots better, there simply aren't enough opportunities to grab a rebound. These are just counting stats. They do not account for the chances a team creates, and how good teams are at capitalizing on these chances. 

Advanced Rebounding Stats

Rebound Type	Season Average	Wins (+/-)	Losses (+/-)
OREB%	28.1411	2.5	-2.5
DREB%	71.86	2.5	-2.5

This gives us a clearer indication of how things function in the NBA. Rebounding is a huge benefit, and teams that capitalize on their chances usually come out on top. But you might ask yourself, how much of a difference is there in terms of numbers?

To be honest, not much. 28.14% offensive rebounding numbers translate to around 11 offensive rebounds a game. This indicates that the difference between wins and losses in terms of offensive/defensive rebounding percentage is around 4-6 offensive+defensive boards a game. The average game in the NBA has a point differential of around 10-12 points a game. A few extra boards here and there can help flip the game, and rebounding is a key part of the secret to winning.


Highest Impact on Winning

We have talked about the importance of rebounding to wins, but there are different types of stats that surround rebounding. There's the regular counting and advanced stats, contested boards, rebounding chances, and many more. So, let's find out, which stat surrounding rebounding has the highest correlation to winning.

Variable	R^2 Value
DREB	0.3213
REB%	0.2551
DREB%	0.1270
Adjusted REB Chance%	0.1179
ContestedREB	0.0699
OREB	0.0367
ContestedREB%	0.0236
REBChances	0.0204
OREB%	0.0021

Unsurprisingly, REB% ranks extremely high, as it embodies how many chances you capitalize on. The lack of relationship between OREB and winning last season is fascinating, particularly because of the emphasis often placed upon it. 

This also sheds light upon DREB. Strangely, DREB is the most important rebounding stat to a team's success. Why is that?

Having more DREB limits an offense's OREB so they cannot get second chance points. This also means shorter possession, giving the team more time to play offense. Players get to rest more often and have the energy to play longer. 

Conclusion

In the heat of a game, players focus on securing more offensive rebounds (OREB) because each one represents a golden opportunity to score points, despite its lack of contribution to winning. This evokes the phrase “they just wanted it more,” which underscores the essence of rebounding. Similar to hustle stats, success often hinges less on talent or star power and more on a player's willingness to do the dirty work. It’s about making the smart play, even if you go unnoticed.