Who will win the NFL MVP?

The NFL MVP award is notoriously tough to pin down. Unlike the NBA or MLB, where you can point to a single stat like player efficiency or Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to measure value, the NFL is a different beast entirely. There’s no one-size-fits-all metric, and that’s part of the problem. In the NBA, every player is judged on the same scale, and in MLB, pitchers are the only exceptions to that rule. But in football, you’ve got everything from quarterbacks to offensive linemen to defensive backs, each contributing in vastly different ways. Some guys rack up stats you can see in the box score; others make plays that never show up on paper but are just as crucial.

Take Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric, for instance. It’s a number that attempts to quantify a player's contribution in a single figure, but even they admit that it’s not the gospel truth. AV is a useful tool, but it’s not the end-all, be-all. No magic number encapsulates everything that makes a player valuable, which is why it’s so difficult to crown the true MVP of the league.

But hey, we're not here to get bogged down by complexities. Instead, we're going to focus on the players who are at the top of the MVP race, according to the betting sites. 

Here’s the consensus Top 5:

1. Josh Allen 

2. Lamar Jackson 

3. Joe Burrow 

4. Jared Goff 

5. Sam Darnold 

Yes, you may see that I have left Saquon Barkley out of this list, but there is no way he will win it after sitting out in Week 18. His only at winning the MVP award was breaking Erick Dickerson's hallowed record of 2,105 yards in a single season, something that he is not pushing for.

Supporting Cast

The easiest way to determine how valuable an NFL QB is is by looking at their supporting cast. A better supporting cast usually means a lesser load on the QB, because he is surrounded by an arsenal of weapons. We're only looking at running backs and defense. So much of a pass catcher's role is QB-dependent, and its very easy to say who the best receivers in the game currently are. So, let's dive right in.

Defense

A strong defense is like having a reliable safety net. When the defense shuts down the opposing offense, it gives the QB more time on the field to work their magic. Turnovers? More chances to score. Less pressure? They can focus on their game without worrying about a high-scoring opponent breathing down their neck. A solid defense doesn’t just stop plays; it gives the QB the breathing room they need to execute their plan, stay cool under pressure, and keep the offense moving. Simply put, a dominant defense gives the QB the upper hand in the battle to win.

This is a table of all key defensive metrics. Expected Points Added (EPA) is an advanced metric that aims to quantify the value of every single play on an NFL field and just how important that play was. The teams' statistics have been normalized to 100, representing the league average. The cell colors are assigned as such:

Top-10: Green

Mid-10: Amber

21-26: Orange

27-32: Red

Sam Darnold's success is a testament to the powerhouse defense backing him up—ranking Top-10 in nearly every category. Meanwhile, teams like the Bills, Lions, and Ravens offer a mixed bag: strong in some areas, average in others, and occasionally downright mediocre. Then there's the Bengals, whose defense is a head-scratcher. With just one elite metric and bottom-six rankings across the board, it’s clear that Joe Burrow is the real magician here. The contrast highlights Burrow’s resilience, carrying a shaky defense and proving just how much he's done to keep the Bengals competitive despite the odds stacked against them.

Rushing

A strong rushing attack is like a quarterback’s best friend. When the run game is clicking, defenses can’t just pin their ears back and focus on sacking the QB—they have to respect the ground game. This creates more balanced playcalling, keeping defenses on their toes. A good rushing attack also eats up the clock, limiting opportunities for the opposing offense. Plus, it opens up play-action, making it easier for the QB to hit big plays downfield. The QB gets more time, space, and options to shine when the run game thrives. It’s a win-win for everyone!

This table displays key rushing metrics, where percentage-based values are calculated by dividing rushes in each category by the team's total rushes. The teams' statistics have been normalized to 100, with 100 representing the league average. The cell colors are assigned as such:

Top-10: Green

Mid-10: Amber

21-26: Orange

27-32: Red

Derrick Henry has been a cheat code for the Ravens, turning their running game into a league-wide nightmare. They dominate nearly every rushing category, steamrolling defenses weekly. Meanwhile, the Lions’ ground attack, fueled by Jahmyr Gibbs’ electrifying bursts and David Montgomery’s bruising runs (when healthy), has been unstoppable—and the stats back it up.

On the other hand, the Bills and Bengals? Not so much. Buffalo’s running game is all finesse—flashy but not the kind to bulldoze through defenders. The Bengals, true to form, remain mediocre, hovering just below league average, doing enough to survive but never thrive.

And then there’s Minnesota—a surprising disaster. They rank near the bottom in almost every metric except explosive plays, which feel more like rare accidents than a strategy. What a fall from their stellar defensive ranks!

Pass Catchers (Receivers, Tight Ends)

It's very hard to rank these positions partly because so much of their production is target and QB-dependent. But purely based on their numbers this season, here's how the teams would match up.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'marr Chase and Tee Higgins is the best 1-2 combination in the league.
2. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the game, and the steady development of Jordan Addison has supplemented Jefferson's greatness.
3. Detroit Lions: Despite Jameson Williams taking on a bigger role this season, Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the Lions receiving corps. 
4. Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers made the pro-bowl for the first time ever, but their receiving game is primarily predicated on him and Tight End Mark Andrews.
5. Buffalo Bills: The Bills entered the season with a handful of receivers who were above average, but nobody stood out. Their passing game has been run like a committee, with Allen just throwing it to the open man.

Supporting Cast Ranks

Best: Detroit Lions

While recent numbers don't support this, it's hard to argue that the Lions have not had the most well-rounded team this season. They aren't topping the chart in any category, but rank among the best in all of them. Yes, their defense hasn't been great over the last month, but the offense has stepped up. The MVP is a season-long award, and it is crucial to account for the whole season. They have some of the best pass catchers in the league, with a trio of Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

2nd: Minnesota Vikings

In a world where the importance of rushing has declined, a good defense is far, far more valuable than a good rusher. The Vikings' Top-5 defense under Brian Flores has helped Sam Darnold get easier field positions and made sure he doesn't have to throw for 300+ yards each game. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are some of the best receivers in the game, while T.J. Hockenson is a multi-time pro-bowler.

3rd: Baltimore Ravens

While the Ravens' defense has not been in line with previous years, the offseason addition of Derrick Henry has made them one of the best-rushing teams in the league. Behind a good offseason line, Henry is enjoying a late-career renaissance, one that has helped the Ravens overcome some poor defensive performances.

4th: Buffalo Bills

Despite their significant losses in the offseason, the Bills' defense has been average, not as bad as most expected it would be. Their run game and defense have been average, and despite the midseason addition of Amari Cooper, they do not have any elite receivers. 

5th: Cincinnati Bengals

The only thing the Bengals have going for them is their receivers. A below-average run game and a horrible defense have forced the Bengals to participate in shootouts in every single game, and it's only thanks to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (and Joe Burrow) that the Bengals even have a shot at the playoffs.

QB Play

Now comes the hard part. We have evaluated the supporting casts of each player. Now let's evaluate the QBs themselves. This will be done through a variety of statistics, and team record will also come into consideration because it has to. Because we're evaluation Quarterbacks, I removed any QB that threw less than 200 passes this season so that our data set is not skewed to one side. 

This is a table of all key QB statistics. The players' statistics have been normalized to 100, with 100 representing the league average. The cell colors are assigned as such:

Top-10: Green

Mid-10: Amber

21-26: Orange

27-32: Red

Now, as you can see, this table is much much closer than the others, and it has to be. These have been some of the best QB's in the league this season, and this is why they are in contention for this award. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have no blemish on their resume, ranking Top-20 in all of these statistics. But, its very hard to simply look at this table and determine who the MVP is, so here's the average mark of each of these players. 

Lamar Jackson sits atop the leaderboard, his mind-bogglingly low tally of just 4 interceptions standing out like a cheat code in the NFL. To put it in perspective, only 18 times in league history has a quarterback thrown that few picks while attempting over 320 passes in a season. Joe Burrow isn’t far behind, propelled by his knack for finding the end zone and his stellar win probability added—a stat that essentially measures how many wins he’s worth to his team (spoiler: it’s a lot). Meanwhile, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, and Sam Darnold are bunched up, all making strong cases in their own way.

2024 NFL Season MVP

The MVP of the 2024 season is… drumroll, please… Josh Allen!

Yeah, I know what you're thinking: “Wow, so you did all that data crunching just to end up where Vegas odds and every analyst already are?” Guilty as charged. But hear me out—Josh is different. What he’s managed to do this season with a below-average supporting cast is nothing short of miraculous. Sure, he’s had his fair share of bad moments, but here’s the thing: he doesn’t have the luxury of an All-Pro skill player who can single-handedly win games. The guy’s been carrying the Bills on his back like Frodo lugging the One Ring to Mordor.

Now, let’s pivot. If Joe Burrow somehow drags the Bengals into the playoffs, I’m flipping my (completely hypothetical) MVP vote to him. The man’s been on a statistical heater, set to throw for over 4,800 yards and 40+ touchdowns. And unlike Josh, Burrow’s situation is arguably worse. His defense? A liability. His O-line? A turnstile on bad days. And yet, here he is, throwing darts to receivers and keeping the Bengals alive through sheer willpower. It’s the stuff of legends.

So, after all this number-crunching and narrative-building… who’s your MVP? Do you ride with the media darling Josh Allen, Lamar "Greatest Running QB ever" Jackson, or does Joe “Ice in His Veins” Burrow steal your vote? Let’s hear it.