Boom or Bust? The Circumstances that Propel an NFL QB
One singular position cannot win (or perform well) without the other, and that is most true for perhaps the single most important position in all of team sports, an NFL Quarterback. It starts up front, even before the ball is in their hands. A porous offensive line makes it nearly impossible for a quarterback to perform well, and a bad defense forces a quarterback to backpack his team with no help from the other side, and the same can be said for every position and their impact on a QB's play.
Boom or Bust? The Circumstances that Propel an NFL QB
Statistics Used
Analysis
When you look at how well each model fits, the numbers tell a clear story. The QBR model explains about 28% of the variation in quarterback performance, while the RTG model accounts for roughly 23%. That means both capture some of what drives great QB play, but plenty of the magic still lies beyond the stats. The F-statistics show both models are statistically sound, meaning the predictors as a group genuinely help explain performance. Still, football is wonderfully unpredictable, and while analytics can spot trends, the human side of the game keeps the rest deliciously uncertain.
When you boil it down, the data tells a clear story about what really drives quarterback performance. The model shows that having strong receivers and a productive run game are the biggest difference-makers for both QBR and passer rating. In fact, receiving value and rushing value were the only two variables that showed up as statistically significant, meaning they actually measurably move the needle. Offensive and defensive line win rates, along with overall defensive efficiency, didn’t seem to matter much once the ball was snapped. It’s a reminder that even in a league obsessed with protection and pass rush, quarterbacks still shine the brightest when surrounded by playmakers who can catch and a ground game that keeps defenses honest.
Results (Over the Last 5 years)
QB Situations
Who would have thought?
On the other end of the spectrum, we’ve got the quarterback purgatory list; the guys trapped in football’s equivalent of customer service hold music. Gardner Minshew tops it off in 2024 with a Raiders roster that might as well have been crowd-sourced, while Tom Brady’s 2022 finale was a masterclass in boring football and not scoring. The Jets appear again, because of course they do, with quarterbacks who’ve had fewer weapons than a Nerf war and O-lines that crumble faster than cookies. The Patriots, post-Brady, were a full-blown sitcom: multiple coordinators, zero direction, and wideouts that even fantasy owners ignored. Matt Ryan’s Colts era? So forgettable it feels like a fever dream. Davis Mills and Bryce Young had the “we’re rebuilding” excuse, and Tua’s early years were more survival drills than football. And then there’s Trevor Lawrence, who went from MVP candidate to limping through losses after his injury, turning a 1-seed run into a sad 9-8 miss. Rough times all around.
QB Performance
Then there’s Lamar Jackson in 2024, who broke football in the best way possible. The Ravens built a perfect setup around him, yet he still shattered every metric. By rating standards, it wasn’t just one of his best seasons; it was one of the best ever. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2020 run still feels like a fever dream. Supposed to be a placeholder in Miami, he turned back into “FitzMagic” for a few months, lighting up defenses out of nowhere. And pre-assault Deshaun Watson? That 2020 season was the version Cleveland thought they were trading for: a top-five QB who could carry an offense on his back.
It’s hard not to miss how many names here are from 2020. Clearly, that season was quietly legendary for quarterbacks Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Prescott, and even Fitzpatrick.
It’s a brutal list, the Hall of Shame for modern quarterbacks. Every name here tells a story of what could’ve been and what definitely wasn’t.
Start with Baker Mayfield, Carolina edition. A former No. 1 pick who was once supposed to save Cleveland, flailing so badly that he was told to go home and think about retiring. Will Levis, a year and a half into his career, is already seeing the bench before his rookie contract even cools off. Kenny Pickett, benched in a playoff game while perfectly healthy, was watching from the sideline as his team tried to win without him.
Then there’s rookie Zach Wilson, running for his life behind no protection and throwing to ghosts. Mac Jones, stuck in the Patriots’ chaos with defensive coaches calling offensive plays. Anthony Richardson, whose season last year was so historically bad that it almost redefined what “raw” means. Jalen Hurts, usually superhuman, suddenly looked mortal in that strange 2023 funk. And Trevor Lawrence, the can’t-miss prospect, got Urban Meyer’d into one of the most miserable rookie seasons ever.
Each name on this list isn’t just about bad football; it’s about chaos, mismanagement, and timing gone wrong. It's the who's who of the worst QB seasons over the last few years, and the numbers back it up.
Results (2025)
QB Situations
Best Situations of 2025
The numbers say plenty, but the stories behind them say more. Josh Allen sits atop both charts, his predicted QBR and rating reflecting a Buffalo offense humming with balance. With one of the league’s better lines, a solid group of receivers, and James Cook thriving in the backfield, Allen looks every bit the engine of a complete attack. Jordan Love isn’t far behind, buoyed by Josh Jacobs and a young, explosive receiving corps, plus a defense that lets him play loose and confident. Daniel Jones has finally been given the supporting cast he’s always needed, led by Jonathan Taylor and a group of playmakers that make every snap dangerous. Dak Prescott remains steady and sharp, feeding two top-tier receivers while leaning on Javonte Williams, one of this season’s most complete runners. Then there’s Bo Nix, quietly sitting among the elite, helped by strong protection, versatile weapons, and a defense that keeps him in control of every game. Even Jayden Daniels, whose season has swung between flashes and frustration, has shown what he can do when his weapons click. The takeaway is simple: talent lifts talent, and the quarterbacks surrounded by the most complete rosters are the ones dominating the predictions.
Worst Situations of 2025
The numbers at the bottom tell their own story. Justin Herbert’s drop-off comes despite his arm talent, weighed down by an injury-riddled line that lost Rashawn Slater and missed Joe Alt for stretches, leaving him scrambling behind shaky protection. Cam Ward’s situation might be the league’s toughest, with no real help anywhere; thin receiver depth, a weak line, no run game, and a defense that can’t keep pace. Spencer Rattler’s in a similar spot, forced to do everything himself on a roster short on playmakers. Justin Fields faces many of the same problems, with flashes of brilliance overshadowed by inconsistency around him. Dillon Gabriel might have the defense to keep games close, but with a receiving corps that ranks dead last, he’s fighting uphill every week. These quarterbacks aren’t short on talent, but the support around them has turned every throw into a test of survival.
QB Performances
Best Performers of 2025
This year’s overperformers list is led by a breakout that’s impossible to ignore. Drake Maye has taken the leap from promising rookie to full-fledged franchise quarterback, leading the Patriots to the top of the AFC East and playing with the poise of a veteran. His precision and command have transformed an offense once desperate for rhythm. Right behind him is Sam Darnold, whose resurgence in Minnesota last season wasn’t a fluke; it’s carried right into Seattle, where he’s thriving in a system built around his strengths. The rest of the list reads like a roll call of the league’s elite. Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes are all doing what stars do: finding ways to elevate their teams even when expectations are already sky-high.
Worst Performers of 2025
It’s a rough list, and it tells you a lot about how the season has unfolded. Russell Wilson, Jake Browning, and Geno Smith have all seen the bench, each struggling to match even modest expectations in offenses that fell apart early. For Wilson, it’s been a steady decline; for Browning and Smith, flashes of competence couldn’t outweigh inconsistency. Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel, both rookies, have had it even tougher, failing to rise above already bleak situations and looking overwhelmed against NFL speed and pressure. The surprise name is Trevor Lawrence, a player too talented to be here, but the Jaguars’ endless drops and stalled drives have dragged down his numbers and confidence alike.
Conclusion
If there’s one thing this all proves, it’s that quarterback play is beautifully unpredictable. The data may outline the scaffolding of success, but the actual performance lives in the space between numbers, in confidence, rhythm, trust, and timing. A quarterback’s greatness depends as much on the five linemen in front of him and the chemistry with his receivers as it does on arm strength or football IQ. Football isn’t just interconnected; it’s symbiotic. Every block, every cut, every read shapes what happens next. And that’s what makes it so fascinating, no stat can ever fully capture the chaos and cohesion that define this sport. So, what do you think? Which of these results surprised you the most, or whose the one player you didn’t expect to see here?
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