Winning in the NFL. What stat determines your success?

In the colossal realm of professional football, the NFL stands as a behemoth, not just in terms of the adrenaline-pumping on-field action but also in the sheer magnitude of money and media rights that fuel its grandeur. The NFL, a powerhouse of American sports, thrives on the unpredictability that defines each game, where the outcome hinges on a mere 17 matchups during the regular season. Amidst this intense landscape, every play, every yard gained, and every point scored is scrutinized. Ever wondered what statistical key unlocks the gates to victory in the NFL? Join me on this exploration as we delve into the crucial stat that determines success in the relentless pursuit of triumph on the gridiron. Welcome to "Winning in the NFL. What stat determines your success?" (regular season)

Offense

Offense is king in the NFL. To understand just how valuable offense is to a team's success, I looked mainly at 8 key statistics.

Points per game: It gives us an indication of how good a team is offensively, and the aim of the game is to score points, so the higher your points per game, the more you should be winning.

Points per drive: It tells us how efficiently a team moves up and down the field, and what are you extracting from each drive. If you score 2.5 points per drive, chances are you score a touchdown every third drive or are consistently hitting field goals. If you score 1.8 points per drive, you score every fourth drive. It may not seem like a difference but in a small season of 17 games where every game matters, every drive could make or break your season.

Expected Points Contributed by Offense: How good was your offense at scoring? Higher numbers mean that the offense was high-flying and brilliant as it was able to score at will. Lower numbers meanwhile indicate that you struggled to play well.

Total First Downs: Provides a good insight into how far you can move the ball and how well. More first downs mean you have longer drives, giving you a higher chance of scoring.

Total Yards: Similar to first downs, more yards generally means more scoring.

TO%: How many of your drives ended in a turnover. If the number is higher, it limits your scoring opportunities and it becomes harder to score as you lose the ball.

3rd Down%: The most important down in football. If you don't convert, chances are you cannot go for the touchdown. It prolonged drives, giving you more time to score and taking time away from your opponent's team.                                                                                                                           

Red Zone%: When you get inside the 20-yard line of the opponent, how often do you convert. The higher the number, the more touchdowns a team scores.

Defense

Points per game Allowed: How effective is the defense per game? Are they limiting the points scored by an opponent?                                                                                                                                          

Points per drive: How efficient is the defense in terms of points per drive allowed? Are they giving up close to a field goal every time the opponent gets the ball? Or is it 1 touchdown per 3-4 drives?          

Passer Rating allowed: Can the defense limit the quarterback in terms of his completion percentage and touchdowns?                                                                                                                                          

Sacks: How many sacks did you accumulate over a season?                                                 

Interceptions: How many interceptions did you accumulate over a season?                                          

3rd Down Conversions allowed: Are opponents able to extend drives against your defense by converting 3rd downs? Or does the defense consistently force 3rd and outs leading to punts?                          

Pressure Rate: How often do you pressure the quarterback?                                                         

Turnover %: How many of the opponent's drives end in a turnover?                                              

Scoring %: How many of the opponent's drives end in a score? Field Goal/Touchdown                     

Total Yards Allowed: Is your defense effective at limiting yards?

Miscellaneous

Strength of Schedule: This is an interesting statistic. It takes into account the toughness of the teams you face, scoring your schedule.                                                                                                                      

Total Point Differential: How much did you outscore all your opponents by?

Here are the results. I ran linear regression of all these statistics, and the model spits out a coefficient that relates the statistics and wins to each other, giving us an indication of how much that particular statistic influences wins. I used data from 2021-2023, giving me a 3-year data set. All stats highlighted in red are highly correlated, all in green are moderately correlated, and the yellow ones have no correlation.

Correlation		Stat Type
0.778	Point Differential	Misc
0.686	Points Per Game	Offense
0.61	Expected Points Contributed by Offense	Offense
0.596	Points per Drive	Offense
0.575	Total Yards Gained	Offense
0.515	Total First Downs	Offense
0.462	3rd Down Conversion %	Offense
0.337	Points per Game Allowed	Defense
0.297	Turnover %	Defense
0.248	Sacks	Defense
0.245	% of Drives ending in a score	Defense
0.235	Red Zone Conversion %	Offense
0.214	Points per Drive Allowed	Defense
0.208	Passer Rating Allowed	Defense
0.182	Interceptions	Defense
0.112	Total Yards Allowed	Defense
0.067	3rd Down Conversions Allowed	Defense
0.061	Strength of Schedule	Misc
0.008	% of Drives ending in a Turnover	Offense
0	Pressure Rate	Defense

Huh. Unexpected isn't it?

Let's examine these results a bit more. Point Differential is at the top, as expected. For a team to have a high point differential, the Offense has to score well, while the Defense has to stem the flow of points, so that's expected. What's not expected is the lack of correlation between Defense and Winning, particularly as we have firsthand seen the importance of having a good defense. We just saw the Baltimore Ravens win 13 games on the back of the league's best defense, while the Chiefs' & Browns' defense carried them all year long, continuously putting them in positions to win. Dallas and Buffalo both had top-scoring defenses en route to winning 12 games each, so we have seen how important a good defense is. Why doesn't the data back this up? 

As somebody who has not watched enough football to make a valid case for/against the data, I will leave this up to those who are knowledgeable. Comment why you think the data doesn't back it up, or if does, comment if you think I am looking at the wrong stats.