Which NBA Team has drafted the best?

Welcome, hoop enthusiasts, stat junkies, and armchair analysts alike! From the glitz of the draft lottery to the nail-biting moments, as names are called, the NBA draft is a rollercoaster of emotions where dreams are realized, fortunes are made, and the future of franchises hangs in the balance. We're here to uncover the hidden narratives, untangle the web of draft day drama, and shed some light on the elusive formula for drafting success. Whether you bleed purple and gold, rep the green and white, or proudly sport the blue and orange, one thing's certain: the quest for the perfect draft pick is a never-ending saga that keeps us all on the edge of our seats. So, grab your jerseys, dust off your trading cards, and join us as we unravel the age-old question: Which NBA team has drafted the best? It's bound to be a slam dunk of a journey! 

For the blog, draft day trades will be attributed to the team that gets the player. For eg. Luka Doncic will be part of the Dallas Mavs and not the Atlanta Hawks, as the Mavs were the ones who traded for him. Undrafted players will not be considered because the purpose is to understand who did the best with the picks that they had.

Timeline (2016-2020)

Retention Rate

How many players played with their original teams for at least 3 years/150 games?

The key purpose of looking at such a thing is to understand, how many players the team considered good/high potential. If you do not have them for at least 3 years, either you traded them away within the first year, or they were just not good enough to have a long career in the NBA. The other thing that matters, is whether it is good to have a high retention rate or not? Do you benefit from such a thing?

Team	Drafted	Played 150 games	Retention (%)
Atlanta Hawks	16	8	50.00
Boston Celtics	18	6	33.33
Brooklyn Nets	9	3	33.33
Chicago Bulls	9	5	55.56
Charlotte Hornets	13	8	61.54
Cleveland Cavaliers	5	3	60.00
Dallas Mavericks	10	3	30.00
Denver Nuggets	12	6	50.00
Detroit Pistons	9	4	44.44
Golden State Warriors	10	1	10.00
Houston Rockets	5	1	20.00
Indiana Pacers	9	2	22.22
Los Angeles Clippers	7	1	14.29
Los Angeles Lakers	9	2	22.22
Memphis Grizzlies	13	6	46.15
Miami Heat	4	2	50.00
Milwaukee Bucks	7	3	42.86
Minnesota Timberwolves	9	4	44.44
New Orleans Pelicans	14	4	28.57
New York Knicks	10	6	60.00
Oklahoma City Thunder	10	3	30.00
Orlando Magic	8	5	62.50
Philadelphia 76ers	19	6	31.58
Phoenix Suns	15	6	40.00
Portland Trailblazers	7	3	42.86
Sacramento Kings	12	3	25.00
San Antonio Spurs	10	6	60.00
Toronto Raptors	6	3	50.00
Utah Jazz	10	1	10.00
Washington Wizards	5	2	40.00

The key thing we learned from the table is the number of people you retain matters more than your percentage. The 76ers and the Celtics retention rates are one of the lowest in the league, yet they are two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference because their sheer number of draft picks has allowed them the luxury of being able to draft the wrong guy. It is hard to find any sort of trend in this table. You could say that teams that retained 3 to 4 (almost 1 a draft) guys have had a successful couple of years from 2016 to now, but the Magic, Pistons, Hornets, and Bulls debunk that. Despite having some of the top retention rates, they have not had great seasons in the last 7 years.

Average Win Shares per 48 minutes

Win shares are a player statistic that attempts to divide credit for each win among the team. It is calculated using player, team, and league-wide statistics and the sum of player win shares on a given team will roughly equal that team’s win total for the season. The purpose of such a statistic is to give us an indication of how important a player is to winning, as that is the ultimate goal. Win shares/48, is an indication of how much did you contribute per game's length, and a higher value indicates that you are more important to winning. By using this stat, we can see how some players might be more important to winning than others.

According to the timeline that we used, it is very clearly seen that the best drafting teams over that period in terms of winning, were the Los Angeles Lakers, the Toronto Raptors, the Denver Nuggets, and the Miami Heat. Does actual league data support this? Yes. The Lakers won a championship in 2020, a testament to how well they drafted during 2016-19. The Raptors drafted impact players in the first couple of years of this sample, which allowed them to build a team that won a ring after adding Kawhi Leonard in 2019. The Denver Nuggets were plagued by injuries for the past few years, but a healthy Nuggets dominated the league en route to their 1st ever championship in franchise history last year. The Miami Heat are the only team without the hardware, but they have been so close to that moment, having made the finals twice over the last 4 years and the conference championship in 2022. 

Average Box Plus-Minus (BPM)

Box-plus minus gives us an indication of how good/bad a team is when a particular player is on the court vs off the court. The higher it is, the better, as it indicates that you are valuable to a team's success. Positive values indicate that the team is better with the player while he's on the court vs off the court, while negative values indicate the opposite.

This is more surprising than anything else I have seen. What this basically does, is give us an indication of how bad NBA teams were at drafting during this period. Not a single team has a positive BPM. So, on average, NBA teams were far better when the players (drafted during this period) were off the court than when they were on the court. This also gives us a glimpse as to why leaguewide retention was so bad, just 38% during this time. Teams were simply not drafting great players, and the few good ones that they drafted were offset by the large swathes of bad players they brought in. Based on the chart, some of the best teams include the LA Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Toronto Raptors. 

Best Drafting Team

So, after looking at these key statistics, who exactly was the best drafter over this 5 year sample?

The easiest answer is the Miami Heat/Toronto Raptors. Despite drafting in the late lottery and only having 4 and 6 picks across this sample respectively, the Heat hit on 2, while the Raptors hit on 3. They both rank among the highest in each of the categories used in this analysis. However, the lack of sample size hurts them. The fact they have just had 2/3 members of these drafts means that the team was constructed mainly through trades, not built around the draftees. The second answer could be the LA Lakers, but their retention rate hurts them so much. Despite drafting high in the lottery, the Lakers retained just 2 out of 9. This indicates that they traded away most of their players in the first couple of years with the team, and they were not part of the 2020 Championship. For those who do not know, the Lakers traded away key contributors Lonzo Ball, Brandom Ingram, and Josh Hart for Anthony Davis in 2019. So it cannot be the Lakers.

The Best drafting team across the 2016-2020 sample is, the reigning champions the "DENVER NUGGETS"!! The argument for them is simple. They retained half of their draftees, many of whom were key components en route to their Championship in 2023. They ranked 6th in average Box Plus-Minus, and 4th in average win shares, the only team to rank in the Top 6 of both (the Lakers did too but 2 out of 9....).