The dynasty is coming to an end. What happens next?

Dynasties typically follow a script: the star player gracefully retires or experiences a decline in performance, and the team subsequently unravels. Consider Duncan's Spurs, culminating in a remarkable 67-win season, or Jordan's Bulls securing a title in their final campaign before disbanding. Magic Johnson led the Lakers to the finals in his last season, while Larry Bird's Celtics claimed the top seed in the East with 51 victories, advancing to the conference semifinals. However, the Warriors are challenging this historical narrative in a rather peculiar fashion. The triumvirate of Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Steph Curry, who have been the linchpin of their success, seem destined for a different fate. Despite their recent subpar performance, the prevailing anomaly lies not in Curry's sudden decline or contemplation of retirement, but in the undeniable sense that the Warriors, as we know them, have reached a definitive end – a chapter concluded, a history written.


Minutes PlayedField Goal %3-point %Free Throw %Points
33.80.4590.410.9227.7
34.20.5040.4540.90830.1
These are stats from 2 of Steph Curry's seasons, 1 of which is the current season. Want to take a guess which is which? The first stat line is from the 2023-24 ongoing season, and the second one is from his 2015-16 season where he was named unanimous MVP. At 35, he is still playing at an elite level that many did not think would be possible. If you were to drop the 2023-24 stat line in 2015-16, Steph Curry would still be MVP (not unanimous but MVP nonetheless). So obviously he isn't the issue. Then what is?

The players who surround him. Steph's much-vaunted supporting cast which used to be the benchmark for players surrounding a star has fallen off a cliff, starting with his long-time mates Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. These are Klay Thompson's numbers compared to his career average.

YearsField Goal %3-point %Free Throw %Points
Career Average0.4540.4140.85419.7
2023-240.4230.3780.90116.9

His 3-point % of 0.378 is masked by a few games where he has lit teams up. Otherwise, he has had 16 games this season where he has shot worse than his career average of 3. Those include multiple nights where he has shot 1 of 8, 1 of 6, etc. Basketball reference has a stat called Points added by Field Goal shooting. It measures "The number of extra points added by Field Goals Attempts made above league average".
At his peak from 2016-2019, Klay averaged almost 150 points added by his shots. Last year it was 27. This year? -7.4. Klay Thompson is harming the Warriors by the sheer number of shots he attempts. 

Even after all this, Klay is not the worst player on the team. That honor might go to Andrew Wiggins. On the same stat, Wiggins's Points Added by FG is -45.9. He is shooting 0.274% from 3, astronomically below his career average of 0.352%. When he is on the court, the Warriors lose by 8 points per 100 possessions. His net +/- per 100 possessions is -17.4 (when he is off the court, they win by 9.4 points), 4th worst in the league among players with over 200 minutes. 

In recent times, Draymond Green has emerged as the Warriors' most problematic teammate, prompting questions about his role on the team and the substantial four-year, $100 million contract he inked during the offseason. Green's conduct has been particularly egregious, with three ejections and two suspensions within a span of just 30 games. From infamous incidents like stomping on Sabonis' chest to kicking Steven Adams in a sensitive area and even resorting to physically confronting his own teammate, Jordan Poole, Green's track record is littered with controversy. The question now looms large: is the hefty contract he secured turning out to be more of a burden than a blessing?

Even when Green does manage to grace the court, his impact on the Warriors has been less than stellar. The team suffers a 6.3-point deficit in the minutes he plays, and his defensive rating of 117.0 ranks a disappointing 23rd in the league. This is a far cry from his defensive prowess in previous years, where his ratings consistently ranked among the elite. It's evident that Green's value as an elite defender, once renowned for shutting down the opposition's star player night after night, has experienced a notable regression. Whether attributed to on-court struggles or off-court distractions, the decline raises concerns about the Warriors' investment in a player who, at this juncture, seems to be causing more harm than good.

The issue for the Warriors is very simple. As their players have aged, they have gotten worse (barring Steph Curry). That much is obvious. As you age you lose your athleticism and agility that made you what you used to be. Age is the dynasty-killer, but the Warriors believed they could emulate the Spurs by drafting and grooming young first-rounders to ultimately play big parts in their Championship runs, much like Kawhi Leonard in 2014. They called it the "Two-Timelines Formula". Unfortunately for them, it didn't work. Golden State believed they would find a star in the draft, but the guys after have proven themselves more. 

In 2020, the Warriors drafted James Wiseman with the 2nd overall pick. In 2021, they drafted Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. Here's a list of players that were drafted after all 3 of them. 
All-Stars: Lamelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton
15ppg Scorers: Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Alperen Sengun, Devin Vassell, Immanuel Quickley

James Wiseman was playing so poorly that they traded him midway last season to Detroit. The duo of Kuminga and Moody has played very well this season, and the Warriors' young rookies Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis have played excellently to start their careers. They are not to blame. They are the victims in this situation. Jonathan Kuminga is playing the best basketball of his career, but Steve Kerr has not played him during the crucial moments, leading to reports that Kuminga has lost all faith in Kerr. The lack of support from the older group of players has hampered this team the most, and it doesn't feel like this will change anytime soon. As of 5th Jan, the Golden State Warriors are 16-18, sitting at 11th place, outside the play-in. This current group has neither the talent nor the depth to compete in what is likely to be a loaded Western Conference, so drastic decisions will have to be made. So what's next? There are three ways that the Warriors can approach this. 

Way 1: Trade for a star
The good news for the Warriors is that they own most of their picks in the next 7 years, which gives them enough leeway to go out and trade for a star if they need to. Zach LaVine, Demar Derozan, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, and others would be great fits alongside Steph Curry, with his off-ball movement and shiftiness giving them room to operate with the ball in their hands. In addition, LaVine and Murray will provide extra defensive help alongside Curry, something that Klay Thompson has severely lacked in this season. For LaVine and Murray who signed long-term contracts, the trade package could be: 
2-4 1st Round picks
Jonathan Kuminga and/or Moses Moody
Any one of Klay Thompson, Chris Paul, and Andrew Wiggins.

Way 2: Do Nothing
It is completely possible that by the end of the year, the Warriors have won 48+ games, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins will both be back to playing their best basketball, everything that was wrong with the Warriors will be back to normal and they make the Conference Semi-Finals or higher. In that case, this article was a fraud and nothing in it is to be trusted. With Steph Curry playing like he is, it is completely possible and if that does happen, I apologize to every Warriors fan for turning my back on you and having no faith. If it doesn't, every Warriors fan has to finally acknowledge that the run is finally coming to an end.

Now there is new news suggesting that the Warriors are ready to trade Andrew Wiggins. This is the last hope, the last trick that the Warriors have. If this doesn’t work out and the Warriors are unable to acquire a star player, it’s over. The West is too strong and contains far too many young, up-and-coming teams that will fight till the end, and will do whatever it takes to get better. Unfortunately for the Bay, their era of dominance is over.

Comments

  1. Interesting analysis. Part of what we see across any team or organisation. It's about structured succession planning which invovles not just recruiting top talent, grooming them, but also exposing them to enough critical situations so that they develop the skills (and importantly remain motivated). Too much reliance on key people has often led to a gap in performance when the leaders are past their prime and the next gen is not ready. Interesting to see the same thing playing out here. Probably true for any situation where a team needs to work together to drive success, be it sports or business!

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