Has the new CBA put an end to repeat and three-peat champions?

Ah, the NBA—a realm where the echo of sneakers on the hardwood sets the rhythm of heart-pounding moments. It's a stage where destinies are written, and underdogs become legends. But wait, there's a twist to the narrative, a twist that's turning the league into an electrifying rollercoaster of parity.

For ages, the NBA has worn the crown of being the fairest league in the US. A realm where a solitary superstar can propel a team from the shadows of obscurity to the dazzling lights of prominence. Think about it—a dash of talent, a sprinkle of magic, and behold a small-market team transforms into a powerhouse. The Golden State Warriors illustrated this phenomenon, as did the Milwaukee Bucks. Yet, in this vortex of transformation, the NBA now dances to the rhythm of unprecedented parity.

Remember the days of dynasties, when a single team dominated the stage for years on end? Think of the Golden State Warriors during the KD era or the formidable Miami Heat. Those were the times of kings and conquerors, where history was written with each dunk and three-pointer. But as we stand on the precipice of a new era, it's time to bid adieu to the predictable and embrace the thrilling unknown. 

Let's step back and examine the shift. From 2015 to 2018, the Golden State Warriors claimed an astounding three titles, etching their name among the great dynasties. Yet, as the sands of time flowed into the 2018-19 season, a transformation occurred—no team managed to reclaim the throne. The storylines were no longer scripted; the outcomes were tantalizingly uncertain. 

But what's causing this seismic shift? Enter the stage the grand enforcer of unpredictability—finances. The sweet taste of victory comes hand in hand with the bitter pill of financial responsibility. Consider the Golden State Warriors, who clinched victory last year, or the Milwaukee Bucks, champions from two years prior. What seems like triumph on the court translates into a grueling battle on the balance sheets. These champions have yet to taste glory again, restrained by a financial straitjacket.

Say hello to the new star of the show—the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). This contract spells out the rules, adding an extra layer of drama. Imagine a labyrinth where every move comes with a consequence. The NBA salary cap for this season stands at $136.021 million, while the luxury tax looms ominously at $165.294 million. Cross that line, and the toll collectors arrive, demanding hefty fees. But the plot thickens for repeat offenders, with penalties that could haunt even the bravest souls. The Golden State Warriors brace themselves for a mind-boggling $190 million luxury tax bill, while the LA Clippers aren't far behind, shelling out over $100 million.

The payments are as follows:

First Time Offenders

Money Exceeded ($)	Fees per dollar (<3 times in last 4 seasons )	Fees per dollar (>=3 times in last 4 seasons )	Total prospective amount
0-5mn	1.50	2.50	7.5mn
5-10mn	1.75	2.75	8.75mn
10-15mn	2.50	3.50	12.5mn
15-20mn	3.25	4.25	16.25mn
20+mn	Increases by $0.5 at increments of 5mn

This implies that if a team spends $4mn over the luxury tax, it will pay the league $1.5 for every dollar it goes above the luxury tax level. The more often you pay the luxury tax, the higher the penalty fees get. Repeat offenders have it much worse. 

But the financial saga doesn't end there. Say hello to the Second Apron, a $17.5 million buffer above the luxury tax line. Cross this line, and penalties await:

• No $5mn taxpayer mid-level exception
• First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)
• A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons
• Teams cannot include cash in a trade (sweeteners to make the trade beneficial)

It's a tightrope walk for teams aspiring to greatness without shattering the bank. Teams are suddenly unable to do as they wish. Teams are less likely to spend like the Warriors and Clippers have done in the last couple of years, as it will move on to handicap the team, and the owners will have to fork out more money to keep the roster. 

But there's more. Allow us to introduce the contract carousel. From rookies to seasoned veterans, NBA players' earnings now dance to the rhythm of their years in the league. It's a tiered system—25% of the NBA cap for those with 0-6 years, 30% for the 7-9 year veterans, and a commanding 35% for the battle-hardened players with 10+ years under their belt. Top performers are no longer settling; they're aiming for the Supermax (35% of the salary cap), demanding a lion's share. The result? A select few feast on a sumptuous financial feast, while the rest are left picking up the crumbs. For players to have any shot at a title, a pay cut will become necessary as the superstars will expect money based on their production. The role player will soon be reduced to minimum contracts, a move the Phoenix Suns have already made. 11 players on the Suns will combine to make a measly $24.5 million this season.

Enter the Boston Celtics, a powerhouse team propelled by the soaring talents of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Brown's record-breaking $304 million extension is the stuff of headlines. Ranked 22nd on The Ringer's player list, he commands a staggering 35% of the cap, translating to a jaw-dropping average of $61 million per year. The twist? He isn't even his team's top player. Hold on to your hats—Brown and Tatum together gulp down a colossal 70% of Boston's cap. Add Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon, and other pieces, and that extension is not looking pretty for Boston's finances.

For a contending team to stay relevant, the team usually has 2-3 all-stars that are likely to demand max money. This can be anything between 25-35% of the cap based on their experience. To put this in context, let's look at what the Top-10 teams (based on ESPN power rankings) will be paying their best/most valuable players for the 2023-24 season.

Team	Salary (Top 3 players)	Cap space left (NBA Cap: $136mn)	Luxury Tax left (Luxury Tax floor: $165.3mn)
Denver Nuggets - Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon	103,706,932	$32,314,068	61,587,068
Milwaukee Bucks - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton	111,822,779	$24,198,221	53,471,221
Boston Celtics - Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis	100,446,617	$35,574,383	64,847,383
Phoenix Suns - Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal	130,407,223	$5,613,777	34,886,777
Miami Heat - Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro	104,784,020	$31,236,980	60,509,980
LA Lakers - Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves	100,222,580	$35,798,420	65,071,420
Golden State Warriors - Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green	117,456,484	$18,564,516	47,837,516
Cleveland Cavaliers - Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley	76,049,920	$59,971,080	89,244,080
Memphis Grizzlies - Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr.	64,952,535	$71,068,465	100,341,465
LA Clippers - Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Russell Westbrook	95,115,987	$40,905,013	70,178,013

(Note: This is not a list of the highest-paid players on each team. This is a list of their most important players and how much they are earning. Eg There are many LA Clippers players making more than Westbrook, but he is the third-most important player on the team)

For any of these teams to contend without breaching the luxury tax margin, they have around $60 million to fill their roster with 12 more players. Quality role players cost anywhere from $10-25 million, meaning that contending teams will have to accept paying a hefty luxury tax and exceeding the second apron to have a shot at the title.

So, what's the verdict? Are repeat champions fading into the pages of history? The financial labyrinth points to a tentative "not quite yet." Contracts spiraling skyward and a shifting CBA are rewriting the script. Perhaps it's time to bid adieu to the era of Lakers-like or Warriors-style dynasties. Instead, prepare for a fresh tale of champions each season, a narrative that refuses to be penned in advance.

Could I be mistaken? Conceivably. Who knows, the Denver Nuggets might be gearing up for a back-to-back triumph, laughing in the face of predictions. But here's the truth—this league is embracing unpredictability, making space for the rise of unlikely heroes and the fall of reigning giants. As fans, let's savor the exhilarating journey because in the world of the NBA, the only thing more unpredictable than the next buzzer-beater is the path to the championship crown.