The New York Mets need to turn it around, and they need to do it fast

Few thought it would be like this. After owner Steve Cohen splashed another $100 million deal to sign star closer Edwin Diaz and gave Justin Verlander a 2-year-$86 million contract, many expected the Mets to run the league. Why wouldn't they? After winning over 100 games last season (out of 162), the Mets had proven they had what was required for big success. In the last few days of the season, a red-hot Atlanta Braves team would overtake them to take first place, which meant they had to win their elimination series. The lack of pitching depth hurt them in the wild-card round where they lost to the San Diego Padres.

The Mets had a productive offseason, resigning Brandon Nimmo to an 8 year-$162 million deal and replacing outgoing pitchers Jacob DeGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Tajiuan Walker with Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and José Quintana. Edwin Diaz resigned, and they lost virtually none of their position players in the offseason. 

Arguably, the pitching staff was now better. Justin Verlander was coming off a career year in 2022 where he had won the Cy Young with the best ERA (runs given by a pitcher per 9 innings) in the league. Kodai Senga had played in the Nippon Baseball League (Japanese) since 2012 and was one of the best pitchers there. He had been crowned champion 5 times and was a 3x All-Star. Even with a 6-7 Win-Loss record last year, José Quintana had the 16th-best ERA in the MLB. He had proven himself as a quality starter in the rotation and was most likely to be the 5th starter. 

On the other hand, they lost Jacob DeGrom, one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately for him, DeGrom had not started in 20 games since 2019, which made it highly unlikely that he was worth the price. Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker carried the rotation for most parts of the season and posted stunning records during the 2022 season. Their replacements, however, were better and well-equipped to last the season. Instead of a dominating start to the season, the Mets fell over themselves, and are currently 32-36, 4th in the NL East (their division), 10 games behind the leading Atlanta Braves, and 4 games behind the last wild card spot.

The pitching staff failed to live up to the hype. Edwin Diaz went down with an injury, and other pieces of the rotation have followed. Barring Max Scherzer, no other pitcher has an ERA even remotely close to 3. Injuries have plagued the team. Justin Verlander and Carlos Carasco have only pitched less than 10 games apiece. The pitchers cumulatively have an ERA below the league average. They rank 2nd to last in Wins Above Replacement from their Pitchers (a statistic that measures how many wins a player is worth over the league average player), and the team ERA is a miserable 4.69 (26th in the MLB). They have already given up 93 home runs till now, more than halfway to their total of 169 last year. With the rotation finally fully fit, the Mets need them to hit their stride as they would not even make the playoffs if the season ended today.  

The bats have failed to carry the load. Their batting average and slugging percentage are 21st in the league, a bottom-10 offense that should not even be this close to .500 (winning percentage). The only reason the team hovers around that mark is through the sheer amount of home runs they hit (T-11), the fact that they don't strike out often (27th), and they get walked a lot and run the bases well. Those are some factors that have helped keep them afloat, but the team needs to play better if they want to make a world series run.

It's not just the losses; it's who they have lost to that would haunt them the most. They have lost 4 out 6 to the Colorado Rockies (29-41) and 2 games out 3 to both the Chicago Cubs (30-37) and the Cincinnati Reds (34-35). They got swept in a 3-game series vs. the Detroit Tigers (27-39) and lost 4 out 7 to the Washington Nationals (26-40). Their record against Sub-.500 teams is a paltry 15-16. That may not seem that bad, but league-leading franchises such as the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves have a 27-9 and a 27-12 record against these teams. The reason? The 5-worst teams in the league have a combined W-L record of 117-222, which amounts to a winning percentage of 0.345. The Mets are 6-7 against these teams. 

Obviously, the amount of talent that the Mets possess means that sooner or later, the tides will turn. They have in their ranks some of the best pitchers of this generation to go along with a dynamic offense that ranked top-5 in the league just last season. Now, it's just a matter of finding their rhythm and unlocking a gear that was not present. They simply cannot wait to play weak teams and pile up wins; they lost the chance to do that. The goal is to win at all costs, and the Mets should do whatever they can to bulk up their ranks as we head to the halfway mark.